UBS is looking for the S&P 500 to trade lower in Q1 of 2024, forecasting down to 4280 in March.
The upmove we've seen (prior to Wednesday!) may be, what UBS is calling, a ‘bull trap’:
- We still think that the current breakouts is the setup for a classic bull trap instead of believing in the start of a larger breakout campaign
Citing as reasons to be wary:
- low volatility
- yields hitting oversold levels
- divergences with UBS' proprietary indicators
