• Final Services PMI 52.4 vs. 52.8 expected and 53.7 prior.
  • Final Composite PMI 52.6 vs. 52.9 expected and 53.8 prior.

Key findings:

  • Business activity growth eases to three-month low in September.
  • Robust order books underpin positive business expectations for the year ahead.
  • Prices charged inflation slows for third month in a row.

Comment:

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

"The September PMI surveys suggest that the UK economy is still on a positive trajectory, with improving order books accompanied by cooling inflationary pressures. Most encouragingly, prices charged inflation in the service sector, which acts as a barometer of domestic inflationary pressures, edged down to its lowest since February 2021.

UK service providers indicated a moderate expansion of activity in September, fuelled by resilient business and consumer spending. However, the post-election rebound lost some momentum as output, new work and employment all increased at the slowest pace for three months.

Robust domestic demand has been recorded throughout the third quarter of 2024, helping to offset a headwind from lacklustre export sales. Survey respondents linked rising volumes of total new work to renewed growth in the UK economy and the impact of domestic political stability on investment spending.

Some service sector firms commented on delayed decision-making among clients due to business uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget on 30th October. However, the majority of survey respondents (56%) expect a rise in business activity during the year ahead, while only 11% forecast a downturn.

The resulting index signalled a slight improvement in overall business optimism since August. Lower borrowing costs, easing price pressures and more certainty regarding the monetary policy outlook all helped to boost growth expectations in the service sector."

UK Composite PMI
UK Composite PMI