The US 10-year yield has moved to a low of 4.225% after the US PCE data today. It is currently trading at 4.234% down 4.0 basis points on the day. The high yield reached 4.319%.
The move lower has taken the yield back below its near-converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above). Those levels come in near 4.27%.
Looking at the hourly chart, the yield since February 13 has mostly traded between 4.20% and 4.33%. Admittedly, there was a brief break above the high yield to 4.35%, and a brief break below the lower extreme to a low of 4.187%. However, most of the price action is within the aforementioned range.
With the dip back below the hourly moving averages, the bias is tilted more to the downside. However it would still take a move below the 4.20% level - and staying below - to give the downside more credence. Until then, the ups-and-downs will keep the yield confined in the range.
So look for the break, with the 100/200 hour MA as the intermediate bias defining barometer.