US UMich Consumer Sentiment
- July final was 66.4
- Current conditions 60.9 vs 62.7 prior
- Expectations 72.1 vs 68.8 prior
- 1-year inflation 2.9% vs 2.9% prior
- 5-10 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prior
- Overall, expectations strengthened for both personal finances and the five-year economic outlook (highest reading in four months)
Yesterday's retail sales report was strong and Walmart executives repeatedly described a stable and resilient consumer so I have a hard time putting any weight on this survey, which is more about politics and gasoline prices than consumer spending. Along those lines, the survey noted:
With election developments dominating headlines this month, sentiment for Democrats climbed 6% in the wake of Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee for president. For Republicans, sentiment moved in the opposite direction, falling 5% this month.
The inflation numbers are stable, though still above pre-pandemic norms.