The YoY earnings at lowest since 2021
Some more detail from the April US jobs report:
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. Last month 0.3%
- Average hourly earnings YoY 3.9% versus 4.0% expected. Last month 4.1%.
- Average work week Hrs 34.3% versus 34.4 expected. Last month 34.4
- The labor force participation rate for April 62.7% vs 62.7% last month
- U6 (underemployment rate) 7.4% versus 7.3% last month.
Just prior to the release:
- 2-year yield 4.862%
- 10-year yield 4.546%
- Dow implied +296 points
- S&P index +18.80 points
- NASDAQ index +112.96 point
The initial reaction 2-minutes after the release:
- 2-year yield 4.716%
- 10- year yield 4.460%
- Dow implied 554 points
- S&P index +54 points
- NASDAQ index +259 points
Two cuts are fully priced for the end of the year (52 basis points) vs 42 basis points prior to the report.
The USD is lower:
- EURUSD: has extended above its 200-day moving average to 1.07967 to an intraday high of 1.0811. The 50% of the move down from the March 2023 high comes in at 1.07906. That is now a close risk/support level.
- USDJPY has moved down to the old ceiling from the 2022, 2023 and the old 2024 high near 151.86 to 151.96. The low just reached 151.855. KEY LEVEL TRADERS.
