Coming up from the US on Wednesday, 4 October 2023:
The ADP employment data will be eyed for insight on the degree to which the pace of private job creation has been consistent with the FOMC’s objective of rebalancing the labour market.
- The data prior for this has indicated a moderation in private employment growth, but its still very solid. The August number was a 5-month low.
- The range of expectations is 125K to 200K
ISM Services hit a 6-month high last month and has been in expansion (above 50) for all of this year. A moderation from August is expected for the September result in the face of:
- surging gas prices
- diminishing excess savings
- rising credit card delinquencies
- student loan payments resuming
- pay growth moderating
The range of expectations is
- 51.5 to 55.0