ISM services
- Prior was 52.1
- Employment 51.4 vs 51.5 prior
- New orders 54.2 vs 53.7 prior
- Prices paid 64.4 vs 58.2 prior
- Business activity 58.2 vs 53.7 prior
- Supplier deliveries 52.5 vs 49.5 prior
- Inventories 49.4 vs 45.9 prior
- Backlog of orders 44.3 vs 47.1 prior
- New export orders 50.1 vs 49.6 prior
- Imports 50.7 vs 53.8 prior
- Inventory sentiment 53.4 vs 54.6 prior
Treasury yields and the US dollar are higher on this, with USD/JPY quickly up 40 pips. The higher prices paid number is a driver but note that JOLTS job openings also jumped.
ISM services prices paid were at the highest since Feb 2023.
US 10-year yields are up 6 bps to 4.67%, which is the highest since April.
Comments in the report:
- “Preparations are underway to diversify supply in the anticipation for tariffs and the effect it will have on our business.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
- “New residential construction remains hampered by interest rates and affordability issues. Tariff threats from incoming administration have been making suppliers reluctant to hold pricing for more than one year. As projects can take two-plus years, budgeting is getting difficult, similar to 2021 and 2022, when supply chain disruptions caused chaos in pricing.” [Construction]
- “Moving work offshore to save cost.” [Finance & Insurance]
- “Continued shortages of IV solutions have resulted in some cases being cancelled and/or delayed.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
- “Generally optimistic that the incoming administration will positively affect regulatory, tax and energy policies that will spur economic improvement. We are concerned about tariff activity and are hoping for the best.” [Information]
- “Inflation levels seem to be increasing, thus dimming hopes of interest rate cuts.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
- “Overall activity slightly higher than planned.” [Retail Trade]
- “Seems to be a lot of uncertainty about tariffs and purchasing decisions. A lot of wait and see.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
- “General business conditions are still going well. The end of (2024) is approaching, so end-of-year preparations are in full swing.” [Utilities]
- “Customers are slowing down, and they are cutting back their inventories in preparation for the end of the year, so our sales are slowing down.” [Wholesale Trade]