- Prior +353K (revised to 229K)
- Two-month net revision -167K vs +126K prior
- Unemployment rate 3.9% vs 3.7% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
- Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.5% prior
- U6 underemployment rate 7.3% vs 7.2% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Prior avg hourly earnings +0.6% m/m (revised to +0.5%)
- Average hourly earnings +4.3% y/y vs +4.4% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.3 expected
- Change in private payrolls +223K vs +160K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls -4K vs +10K expected
- Household survey +63K vs -31K prior
- Birth-death adjustment K vs -121K prior
US nonfarm payrolls chart
Heading into the report, the market was pricing in 95 bps in Fed rate cuts this year and USD/JPY was trading at 147.09. S&P 500 futures were down 4 points and US 10-year yields were down 3.1 bps to 4.06%.
The headline here was strong but the details were not. Unemployment rose, there was a big negative revision and -- critically -- wage growth reversed. The market is now pricing in 97 bps in easing and USD/JPY is down to 146.81.