Christmas shopping will start soon after Halloween in the US and the National Retail Federation isn't overly optimistic.
Their latest forecast is for a nominal 2.5-3.5% rise in spending, the slowest pace in six years. They see sales between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, up from $955.6 billion a year ago.
They also see less hiring this year with staff increasing by 400-500K for the holiday surge compared to 509K a year ago.
"Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously," said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
The holiday forecast is consistent with the NRF's forecast for sales to rise 2.5-3.5% this year.
Deloitte is also forecasting sales will rise at the slowest pace in six years.
It's not all bad news and may represent some seasonality as the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is six days shorter in 2024 with the Presidential election also potentially slowing early-November sales.