Initial jobless claims continues to skim along the bottom
- Prior week 194K revise to 195K
- initial jobless claims 192K versus 200 K expected
- 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 191.25K vs 189.75 K
- continuing claims prior week 1.696M revised to 1.691M
- continuing claims 1.654M vs 1.700M estimate
- 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.6687M vs 1.6717M last week
This week's report corresponds with the BLS payroll survey week. So with the number still below 200,000, it implies a decent number for next month's jobs report.
The chances of a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting is around 20%. The expected terminal rate is centering around 5.35%. At the next Fed meeting, they will revise their terminal rate forecast in the central tendencies.