US ISM manufacturing for May 48.7 versus 49.6 estimate

• Prior month 49.2
• ISM manufacturing 48.7 versus 49.6 estimate.
• Prices paid 57.0 versus 58.5 estimate. Last month 60.9.
• Employment 51.1 versus 48.6 last month
• New orders 45.4 versus 49.1 last month
• Production 50.2 versus 51.3 last month.
• Supplier deliveries 48.9 versus 48.9 last month
• Inventories 47.9 versus 48.2 last month.
• Backlog of orders 42.4 versus 45.4 last month
• New export orders 50.6 versus 48.7 last month
• Imports 51.1 versus 51.9 last month

The ISM manufacturing has been below the 50 level for all but one month over the last year (was at 50.3 in March 2024).

Markets are nearly 100% for a rate cut in November.

US yields have moved lower after the report:

• 2-year yield 4.84%, -6.8 basis points (versus 4.862% prior)
• 10 year yield 4.409%, -10.2 base points (versus 4.453% prior)
• 30-year yield 4.557%, -9.4 basis points (versus 4.595% prior)

In the US stock market, the broader indices are lower

• S&P index is trading up 7.3 points or 0.14% at 5285.50. Prior the index is up 10.16 points or 0.19%.
• The NASDAQ index is up 89 points or 0.53% at 16823.19. Prior to the report, the index was up 108.54 points or 0.65%.

The USDJPY has dropped to new lows and lowest level since May 22. The price is also testing its 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the May 16 low. That level comes at 156.131.