US core CPI year-on-year (%)
- CPI y/y +3.1% versus 2.9% expected
- Prior y/y 3.4%
- CPI m/m +0.3% versus +0.2% expected
- Prior m/m 0.2% (revised lower from +0.3% in benchmark revisions)
Core measures:
- Core CPI m/m +0.4% (unrounded +0.39%) versus +0.3% expected. Last month 0.3%
- Core CPI y/y 3.9% versus 3.7% expected. Last month was 3.9%
- Shelter +0.6% versus +0.4% last month
- Shelter y/y +6.0% vs +6.2% prior
- Services less rent of shelter +0.6% m/m vs +0.4% prior (and +0.5% m/m in Nov)
- Real weekly earnings -0.3% vs -0.2% prior
- Food +0.4% m/m vs +0.2% m/m prior
- Food +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y prior
- Energy -0.9% m/m vs +0.4% m/m prior
- Energy -4.6% vs -2.8% y/y prior
- Rents +0.4% m/m vs +0.4% prior
- Owner's equivalent rent +0.6% vs +0.5% prior
- Full report
The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase but even outside of that, inflation is looking more problematic.
The six-month core reading is up to 3.7% annualized vs 3.2% prior while the three-month annualized rate rose to 4% from 3.3%.
There are big dollar bids on this with rate-cut pricing for year-end down to 92 bps from 111 bps.
