Greg posted the data Thursday:

JP Morgan is eyeing the data as moving into recession territory. JPM says the jobless claims reading "hints at potentially more abrupt slowing."

  • "While the claims series can always be volatile from week to week, there are no obvious distortions to today's number,"
  • "Business labor demand has been gradually cooling and today's initial claims reading hints at potentially a more abrupt slowing."
  • If sustained for the month of May, the %3m/3m change will have surged to 17.4% — a jump that would clearly put it in the range only seen in recessions over the past half-century
jpm jobless recession usa 12 May 2023