core pce chart
  • Prior was +4.9% y/y
  • Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.4% expected
  • PCE price index +0.6% vs +0.2% prior
  • Price index y/y +6.3% vs +6.3% prior

Consumption:

  • Personal income +0.5% vs +0.5% exp
  • Real personal consumption -0.4% vs +0.7% prior (prior revised to +0.3%)
  • Consumption adjusted +0.2% vs +0.4% expected
  • Prior adj +0.9% (revised to +0.6%)

The US dollar cooled on this release and the terminal rate on Fed fund futures is now just below 3.50%. The broader market is reluctant to buy into the 'peak inflation ' narrative but yields are sliding and US 10s are testing 3%.