The ranges from the survey are useful to be aware of for such high-profile data. When the actual results fall outside the range of estimates the market impact can be outsized.
I posted earlier in the week the range of estimates for the ADP data, which then came in well below. The market response was indeed outsized that session.
- US data focus for Wednesday is ADP jobs (September) and ISM Services PMI (also September)
- ADP US September employment +89K vs +153K expected
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 4Oct: After 30 year yield hits 5%, yields back off
So, given that preamble, here are the ranges from the survey of expectations for the major data points in the NFP coming up today, minimum estimate first, then the maximum:
- Headline number for non-farm payrolls 90K to 256K
- Unemployment rate 3.4% to 3.9%
- Average earnings m/m 0.1% to 0.4%
- Average earnings y/y 4.2% to 4.4%
