The US nonfarm payroll report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. Although Canada sometimes also reports their jobs report, that will not be the case today. They will release their report next Friday.
The expectations are showing:
- NFP 400 K versus 467K last month
- unemployment rate 3.9% versus 4% last month
- U6 unemployment rate came in at 7.1% last month
- Private payrolls 378K versus 444K last month
- Average hourly earnings MoM 0.5% versus 0.7% last month
- Average hourly earnings YoY 520% versus 5.7% last month
- Average workweek hours 34.6 versus 34.5 last month
- Manufacturing payroll 23K versus 13K last month
Goldman Sachs (in brief) remarks:
- Estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 500k in February
- Estimate a two-tenths drop in the unemployment rate to 3.8%
Our forecast assumes the return of roughly 200k payroll workers who missed work in January due to Omicron
- The ADP employment data for February forecast a gain of 475K (vs 388K estimate). They also revised sharply higher their estimate for January to +509K from -301K previously reported.
- ISM services employment index moved below 50 to 48.5 in February from 52.3 in January
- ISM Manufacturing employment index came in at 52.9 vs 54.5 in January. Although lower it was the 6th straight increase.
The labor market remains tight in the US. Combined with the remnants of omicron, that always has the potential to skew numbers. As a result, a weaker number may not get much attention, while a stronger number could elevate inflation concerns even more.
Before the release: