- Prior was +200K
- Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.7% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
- Participation rate 62.1% vs 62.2% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
- U6 underemployment rate 6.7% vs 6.8% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.6% m/m vs +0.3% expected (prior +0.4%, revised to +0.5%)
- Average hourly earnings +5.1% y/y vs +4.6% expected (prior +4.7%)
- Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.5 expected
- Change in private payrolls +221K vs +190K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +14K vs +20K expected
- Household survey -186K vs -306K prior
- Full report
USD/JPY was trading at 134.06 just before the data and has shot to 135.83 afterwards as part of a broad USD rebound. The wages number is a concern and could stoke second-round effects on inflation .
The terminal Fed funds top has moved up to 4.97% from 4.90% yesterday.
I worry about those household numbers, which were a big contrast to the establishment survey for the second month.