- Prior was +263K (revised to +315K)
- Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.6% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.5%
- Participation rate 62.2% vs 62.3% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
- U6 underemployment rate 6.8% vs 6.7% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected (prior +0.3%)
- Average hourly earnings +4.7% y/y vs +4.7% expected (prior 5.0%)
- Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.5 expected
- Change in private payrolls 233K vs +200K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +32K vs +15K expected
- Household survey -306K vs +204K prior
Implied odds of a 75 bps Fed hike were at 60% ahead of this report with the remainder at 50 bps. It rose to 64% afterwards. Non-farm payrolls continue to run hot. The uptick in unemployment is notable but it's coming in lower participation. The household survey is a fair bit softer than the establishment survey.