A US official is saying:
- US believes Russia has committed more than 80% of its pre-stage combat power in Ukraine (recall there were reports of 190,000 troops along the border)
- US believes Russia's made advance on Kyiv has had no appreciable movement in the last 24 hours
- Key have advance slowed due to fuel supply challenges, but also possibly two regrouping, rethinking operation
- US assesses that Russia has launched systems that could be used for vacuum bomb but cannot confirm use
- evidence of risk-averse Russian behavior by Russian forces worried about casualties to their own forces
- Russia not necessarily willing to take high risks with their own aircraft. See aircraft on the ground
- US has indications that some Russian units have surrendered without a fight
- US has picked up indications that morale has suffered in some Russian units
- Russians have been surprised by Ukrainian resistance and some of the morale problems among their forces
- Evidence that Russia has lost some military aircraft during invasion
Overall these comments from US officials are somewhat encouraging. If there are logistical problems from the advance it can certainly dent morale. It takes a lot of fuel to move the infantry along with supplies. If there is a shortage of fuel, that could not only influence the advance until more is trucked in, but also make the infantry feel vulnerable to attack. I would imagine that Ukraine has shut off supplies along the advance route in Kyiv and other major cities.
The EURUSD , nevertheless, remains under pressure with the price reaching the January 28 low at 1.11207. The low from last week at 1.11056 is the next target (lowest level since early June 2020).
EURUSD is testing the lows from 2022