Goldman Sachs have been concerned about the US economy drifting along in H1 but have been encouraged by recent retail sales and industrial production data.
GS now expect Q2 GDP growth at 2.3% (annualised)
- “Our estimate implies that GDP grew at a 1.9% annualized pace in 2024H1 and domestic final sales grew at a 2.3% pace, easily beating gloomy consensus expectations at the start of the year and falling only a touch short of our own initial forecast”
- Goldman forecasts consumer spending is set to grow by about 1.8% in the first half of 2024, only slightly below the year's initial forecast.
- Investment, including residential, business, and inventory investment, exceeded expectations, although housing activity slowed in Q2 following a Q1 surge prompted by lower mortgage rates.
- Net exports fell short due to ongoing weaknesses in goods exports
Further out, GS expect:
- 2.6 %GDP growth in Q3 2024
- 2.4% in Q4 2024
