- Final Q2 reading was +2.4% annualized
- Q1 was +2.0% annualized
- Best quarter since Q4 2021
- Estimates ranged from 2.5%-6.0%
Details:
- Consumer spending +4.0% vs +0.8% prior
- Consumer spending on durables %
- GDP final sales +3.5% vs +4.5% expected (+2.3% prior)
- GDP deflator 3.5% vs +2.5% expected (+2.2% prior)
- Core PCE +2.4% vs +2.5% expected (+3.8% prior)
- Exports +6.2% vs -9.3% prior
- Imports +5.7% vs -7.6% prior
- Business investment +8.4% vs +5.2% prior
Percentage point changes:
- Net trade -0.08 pp vs +0.04 pp prior
- Inventories +1.32 pp vs 0.0 pp prior
- Govt +0.79 pp vs +0.57 pp prior
The final Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking estimate for GDP was +5.4%.
The inflation metric is stale but it's surprisingly high and the market isn't sure how to read that because it could mean that Q4 inflation is lower or could be a sign of stickier inflation.