- Final Q3 reading was +3.2% annualized
- Q2 was -0.6% annualized
Details:
- Consumer spending +2.1% vs +2.3% prior
- Consumer spending on durables +0.5% vs -0.8% prior
- GDP final sales +1.4% vs +4.5% prior
- GDP deflator +3.5% vs +3.3% expected
- Core PCE +3.9% vs +4.0% expected
- Exports -1.3% vs +14.6% prior
- Imports -4.6% vs +-7.3% prior
- Net trade added 0.56 pp to GDP vs adding 2.86 pp in Q3
- Inventories added 1.46 pp vs a cut of 1.19 pp in Q3
- Govt added 0.64 pp vs +0.65 pp in Q3
The final Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 was +3.5%.
This looks like a good report but I'm increasingly worried about falling imports. Some of that is lower commodity prices but it also speaks to softer forward demand.