- Prior was +315K
- Estimates ranged from +127K to +375K
- Unemployment rate 3.5% vs 3.7% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
- Participation rate 62.3% vs 62.4% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
- U6 underemployment rate 6.7% vs 7.0% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected (prior +0.3%)
- Average hourly earnings +5.0% y/y vs +5.1% expected (prior 5.2%)
- Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.5 expected
- Change in private payrolls 288K vs +265K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +22K vs +19K expected
- Household survey +204K vs +440K prior
The implied odds of a 75 bps hike at the November 2 FOMC were at 85% ahead of this report with the remainder at 50 bps. Ahead of the data, USD/JPY was trading at 114.86 and EUR/USD at 0.9795 with cable at 1.1210.
The kneejerk reaction is a higher US dollar with USD/JPY up to 145.06, EUR/USD down to 0.9765 and cable dow nto 1.1141. The implied odds of 75 bps are now up to 88%.
It's close to expectations but it's a good report. Unemployment ticked down, even if it was mostly due to labor force participation falling.
The BLS noted that "Hurricane Ian had no discernible effect on the employment and unemployment data for September. Household survey data collection was completed before the storm made landfall in Florida."
This will be a big test for the market.