- Prior report. Core PCE MoM came in at 0.6% vs. 0.5% expected last month. The prior month was revised down to 0.5% from 0.6%
- Core PCE for September MoM 0.5% vs. 0.5% expected
- Core PCE YoY 5.1% vs. 5.2% expected. Last month was 4.9%
- Headline PCE 0.3% vs. 0.3% last month
- Headline PCE year on year 6.2% vs. 6.2% last month
- Employment wages Quarter on quarter 1.3% vs. 1.4% last quarter
- employment benefits 1.0% vs. 1.2% last month
- employment costs Q3 1.2% vs. 1.2% expected
- personal income 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected. The prior month was revised up from 0.3% to 0.4%.
- personal consumption 0.3% vs. 0.3% last month. The prior month was revised up from 0.1%
The employee costs index is the Fed's favorite wage gauge. The last 4 quarters came in at 1.3% for the current quarter, 1.4% for Q2, 1.2% for Q1 and 1.1% from Q4 2021. The chart below shows the employment costs remain near their highest levels.
The US stock market is reacting a little more favorably to the data as it was not worse than expectations. However inflation costs remain high. There is still work to be done and the data although steady month-on-month/quarter on quarter, is still elevated well above what the Fed would like it to be.
Of note, is the employment cost index which is the Fed's favorite gauge of wages is collected in the 6 weeks period that includes September 12. So with that being October 28, it may not have more recent employment slowing data included.
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