Fundamental Overview
The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections.
There’s been also a good argument that the markets are already positioning for a Trump victory and that should translate in USD strength as it should appreciate on higher growth and less rate cuts expectations. Nevertheless, not all markets have been in sync with this view.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is bouncing around the 149.40 level with the 150.00 handle acting as a ceiling. The buyers will want to see the price breaking above the 150.00 handle to start targeting the 152.00 handle next, while the sellers will look for a break below the 149.00 handle to position for a pullback into the 147.22 level.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action which has been showing a slowing down in the bullish momentum ahead of the 150.00 handle. There’s not much we can glean from this chart as the choppy price action around the 149.40 level makes it hard to find clean levels where to lean onto.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price probed below the minor upward trendline overnight but eventually bounced back above it. We now have a counter-trendline where the sellers will likely lean onto to position for a drop into new lows.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 152.00 handle. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
This week is pretty empty on the data front with market moving releases scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the Flash Japanese and US PMIs, and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI report.