UPCOMING EVENTS:
- Monday: German IFO.
- Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence.
- Wednesday: BoJ Meeting Minutes, Australia Monthly CPI, US Durable Goods Orders.
- Thursday: Australia Retail Sales, US Q2 Final GDP, US Jobless Claims.
- Friday: Japan Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan Retail Sales, UK Q2 Final GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP, US Core PCE.
Tuesday
The US Consumer Confidence is expected to slide further to 105.6 vs. 106.1 prior. The previous report saw a huge miss and coupled with the big miss in US Job Openings it hinted to some notable softening in the labour market. In fact, compared to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, which shows more how the consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the consumers see the labour market.
Wednesday
The Australian Monthly CPI is expected to rise to 5.2% vs. 4.9% prior. This is mainly due to higher energy prices and it’s something that the RBA already expects to happen in Q3. Rising energy prices and higher mortgage payments should lower consumption and weigh on economic growth.
Thursday
The US Jobless Claims beat expectations by a big margin once again last week. The labour market seems to be getting into better balance, but it still remains pretty tight. The consensus for this week sees Initial Claims at 217K vs. 201K prior and Continuing Claims at 1675K vs. 1662K prior.
Friday
The Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.5% vs. 5.2% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.8% vs. 5.3% prior. Unless we see blowout numbers, this report is unlikely to change anything for the ECB, which is clearly leaning towards keeping rates higher for longer now.
The US PCE Y/Y is expected to rise to 3.5% vs. 3.3% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.5% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core PCE Y/Y, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is expected at 3.9% vs. 4.2% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior.
