Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 45 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 144 bps

• ECB: 50 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 153 bps

• BoE: 37 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 125 bps

• BoC: 73 bps (51% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 170 bps

• RBA: 10 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 68 bps

• RBNZ: 45 bps (80% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 150 bps

• SNB: 28 bps (89% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 65 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 8 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 33 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut