Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 22 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 88 bps

  • ECB: 29 bps (83% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 148 bps

  • BoE: 3 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 76 bps

  • BoC: 47 bps (88% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 118 bps

  • RBA: 2 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

  • RBNZ: 36 bps (55% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 100 bps

  • SNB: 40 bps (60% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 90 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 7 bps (71% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 45 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut