Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 63 bps (95% probability of no change at the next meeting)
  • ECB: 48 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting)
  • BoE: 51 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the next meeting)
  • BoC: 62 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the next meeting)
  • RBNZ: 46 bps (53% probability of rate cut at the next meeting)
  • SNB: 25 bps (60% probability of rate cut at the next meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 19 bps (53% probability of no change at the next meeting)
  • RBA: 5 bps (83% probability of no change at the next meeting)