Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 102 bps (54% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 65 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 42 bps (67% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 73 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 24 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 53 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 45 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 9 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

(The market continues to price out the aggressiveness in rate cuts expectations as the US data is quelling fears around the labour market and the volatility in the markets normalises).