The main event everyone is waiting for is finally upon us. The FOMC meeting decision will be announced later today at 1800 GMT and it will be one to surely move markets in the aftermath, alongside Fed chair Powell's press conference half-an-hour later.
The Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 75 bps, though markets are positioning for a more hawkish undertone - with Fed funds futures showing odds of a 100 bps rate hike at ~18%. Just be wary, this will also be the first time that the Fed introduces 2025 projections for the dot plot and that will be a contentious point as Adam highlighted here.
In other words, markets are well prepared for a baseline decision of a 75 bps rate hike. But anything that doesn't resemble a hawkish communique will be heavily scrutinised, especially with regards to the Fed's supposed resolve to crush inflation.
If so, that will be a massive blow for the dollar - which is seemingly running up against the apex amid key technical levels since the end of last week. Equities will rejoice as such but ongoing global economic concerns and recession risks will apply some counter-pressure at least to any major relief rally.
That said, if Powell & co. wants to get a message across to markets that they are unyielding and resolute in their determination to beat the inflation bug, then this is the best platform to do so. Should that be the case, it would very much look to act as the catalyst for the next leg higher in the dollar and bond yields, while stocks are going to head back into the dumpster fire.
As we await the decision, you can check out a host of previews as compiled by Eamonn here.