In the European session, we won't have market moving releases as we just get low tier data points and the 3rd estimate of the Eurozone Q2 GDP (old news). The focus of course will be on the US NFP report in the American session with the Canadian labour market report being released at the same time.
We will also hear from the NY Fed President Williams and Governor Waller before they go into the blackout period tomorrow. Both of them will speak after the NFP report, but since they've already got the data yesterday, they will likely comment on the data and give us clearer guidance.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Canada August Labour Market Report
The Canadian Labour Market report is expected to show 26.5K jobs added in August vs. -2.8K in July and the Unemployment Rate to increase to 6.5% vs. 6.4% prior. The market won't care about this report since we get the US NFP released at the same time.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US August Labour Market Report (NFP)
The US NFP is expected to show 160K jobs added in August vs. 114K in July and the Unemployment Rate to tick lower to 4.2% vs. 4.3% prior. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.7% vs. 3.6% prior, while the M/M figures is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior.
The last month, the US labour market report came out weaker than expected across the board and triggered another wave of selling in risk assets that started with the ISM Manufacturing PMI the day earlier.
There’s been lots of talk about the possible culprit for the weaker figures and it seems like Hurricane Beryl affected the data.
The BLS said Hurricane Beryl, which slammed Texas during the survey week of the July employment report, had "no discernible effect" on the data.
The household survey, however, showed 436,000 people reported that they could not report to work because of bad weather last month, the highest on record for July. There were 249,000 people on temporary layoff last month.
In fact, the majority of the increase in the unemployment rate has been due to people on temporary layoff. The market will want to see if July’s data was indeed negatively affected by temporary factors.
As a reminder, the Fed is very focused on the labour market now and this report will decide whether they will cut by 25 bps or 50 bps at the upcoming meeting.
Central bank speakers:
- 12:45 GMT/08:45 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)
- 15:00 GMT/11:00 ET - Fed's Waller (neutral - voter)