The main event in the European session was the Switzerland CPI which missed expectations by a big margin once again. We will also get the final PMI readings but those are generally not market moving. In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims figures and the US ISM Services PMI which are gonna be the main highlights for the day ahead of the US NFP report tomorrow.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims after rising sustainably during the summer improved considerably in the last weeks.
This week Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs. 218K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1832K vs. 1834K prior.
14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US September ISM Services PMI
The US ISM Services PMI is expected at 51.7 vs. 51.5 prior. This survey hasn't been giving any clear signal lately as it’s just been ranging since 2022, and it’s been pretty unreliable. The market might focus just on the employment index ahead of the NFP report tomorrow.
The recent S&P Global Services PMI noted that “the early survey indicators for September point to an economy that continues to grow at a solid pace, albeit with a weakened manufacturing sector and intensifying political uncertainty acting as substantial headwinds”.
“The sustained robust expansion of output signalled by the PMI in September is consistent with a healthy annualized rate of GDP growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. But there are some warning lights flashing, notably in terms of the dependence on the service sector for growth, as manufacturing remained in decline, and the worrying drop in business confidence”.
“A reacceleration of inflation is meanwhile also signalled, suggesting the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target as it seeks to sustain the economic upturn.”
