The European session today is pretty empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier releases. The main event will be the US NFP report in the American session. We will also hear from Fed's Williams after the US jobs report, so that's going to be interesting.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US September NFP
The US NFP report is expected to show 140K jobs added in September vs. 142K in August and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y are seen at 3.8% vs. 3.8% prior, while the M/M figure at 0.3% vs. 0.4% prior.
The Fed projected a 4.4% unemployment rate by the end of the year with 50 bps of easing. The unemployment rate in 2024 has been rising due to increased labour supply rather than more layoffs, which is something that jobless claims have been capturing well.
The market is pricing a 35% probability of another 50 bps cut in November, which is down from 53% at the start of the week. The probability could very well increase if the NFP report were to be overall weak. Of course, the opposite would be true if the labour market report were to come in better than expected with a 25 bps cut becoming the most likely move.
Central bank speakers:
- 7:55 GMT - BoE's Pill (neutral - voter)
- 13:00 GMT/09:00 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)