The main highlight in the European session was the release of the UK GDP data. There's nothing else on the agenda until the American session. That's when we get the main events for today, that is the Canadian labour market report, the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Canada September Labour Market report
The Canadian Labour Market report is expected to show 27K jobs added in September vs. 22.1K in August and the Unemployment Rate to increase to 6.7% vs. 6.6% prior. The market is pricing a 52% probability for a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting. A weak report will likely strengthen the chances for a 50 bps cut.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US September PPI
The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 1.6% vs. 1.7% prior, while the M/M figures is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs. 2.4% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.3% prior.
A hot report will likely raise the probabilities for the Fed to remain on hold in November, although it's more likely that this is going to be a debate for 2025. The risk now is for inflation to get stuck at a higher level.
14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US October UMich Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment is expected at 70.8 vs. 70.1 prior. Compared to the Conference Board consumer confidence report, which is more biased towards the labour market, the consumer sentiment survey is more weighted towards consumers’ finances.
In fact, analysts believe that it’s a better predictor of consumer spending than the consumer confidence report, which is also why the expectations index in the survey is included in the Leading Economic Index (LEI).
Central bank speakers:
- 07:00 GMT - ECB's Holzmann (hawk - voter)
- 13:45 GMT/09:45 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (dove - voter)
- 14:45 GMT/10:45 ET - Fed's Logan (hawk - non voter)
- 17:10 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Bowman (hawk - voter)