The European session is pretty empty today on the data front. The main highlights will be the US Job Openings and the US Consumer Confidence data in the American session. The market is focused on the US election now, so although the data will be market moving, it has less of an influence.
Nevertheless, with Trump looking like the clear favourite for the market, we might see weak data being faded and hot data increasing the momentum in the "Trump trade".
14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US September Job Openings
The US Job Openings is expected at 7.990M vs. 8.000M prior. The last report surprised to the upside with the quits rate ticking slightly lower and the hiring and layoffs rates remaining stable. It’s a labour market where at the moment it’s hard to find a job but there’s also low risk of losing one.
14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US October Consumer Confidence
The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 99.5 vs. 98.7 prior. The last report surprised with a big miss. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said: “Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the index deteriorated.”
“Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labour market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labour market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.”
“The deterioration across the Index’s main components likely reflected consumers concerns about the labour market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings—even if the labour market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages.”
“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months remained low but there was a slight uptick in the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession.” Watch also the Present Situation Index as it generally leads the Unemployment Rate.
