The European session is pretty empty on the data front as we will just get low tier releases and the final Eurozone GDP report. The main events will be in the American session as we get the US NFP and the Canadian labour market report.

We will also have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report but the focus will be on the NFP. Last but not least, we have some Fed speakers today delivering their last comments before the blackout period starting tomorrow.

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Canada November Labour Market Report

The Canadian Labour Market report is expected to show 25.0K jobs added in November vs. 14.5K in October and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 6.6% vs. 6.5% prior. The BoC is now focused on growth as they met their inflation target.

Following Friday’s Canadian GDP report, the market increased the probabilities for a 50 bps cut in December to 52%. Better than expected jobs data will likely see the 25 bps cut getting back in favour.

Canada Unemployment Rate
Canada Unemployment Rate

13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US November Non-Farm Payrolls

The US NFP report is expected to show 200K jobs added in November vs. 12K in October and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 4.2% vs. 4.1% prior. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y are seen at 3.9% vs. 4.0% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.4% prior.

The last report was negatively impacted by strike activity and hurricanes, so the market just ignored it, especially since the focus was on the US Presidential Election. The labour market data throughout November has been positive, so the expectations going into this NFP report are skewed to the upside.

I don’t see the market repricing the rate cuts expectations further based on labour market data (barring huge surprises). The main event this month will be the US CPI on the 11th of December. In my opinion, the Fed is going to cut by 25 bps anyway but revise the dot plot to show just two rate cuts in 2025 (in line with the market’s pricing) and communicate a pause as they gather more information.

US Unemployment Rate
US Unemployment Rate

Central bank speakers:

  • 14:15 GMT/09:15 ET - Fed's Bowman (hawk - voter)
  • 15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (dove - non voter)
  • 17:00 GMT/12:00 ET - Fed's Hammack (neutral - voter)
  • 18:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Daly (neutral - voter)