It is a holiday week with Christmas eve tomorrow and Christmas day on Wednesday breaking up the action. Nevertheless the markets will be open in the US on Monday and again on Tuesday for a portion of the day. The US stock market will close early on Tuesday at 1 PM ET, while the Bon market will close at 2 PM ET, and not be open until Thursday. Looking ahead to the New Years week, Bond markets will close early on Tuesday, Dec. 31, while stocks trade in regular hours. Both are closed on Wednesday, Jan. 1.
On Saturday, Congress passed and President Biden signed a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown, extending funding until March 14 and providing over $100 billion in disaster relief and farm aid. House Speaker Mike Johnson overcame opposition from GOP critics, President-elect Trump, and Elon Musk to secure bipartisan support.
Key points:
- House vote: 366-34; Senate vote: 85-11.
- Key provisions: $100 billion for disaster relief, $10 billion for farmers, a one-year extension of the farm bill, and funding for the reconstruction of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge.
- Removed provisions: China investment restrictions, lawmaker pay raises, "junk fees" crackdown, and a stadium site transfer to D.C.
- Trump’s demand for a debt ceiling increase was excluded, with GOP lawmakers pledging to address it in 2025.
- Johnson’s handling of the bill raised doubts about his re-election as Speaker, but Musk praised his efforts.
- Democrats emphasized their role in defeating extreme GOP demands to prevent economic harm.
In other Washington news, the Biden administration launched a trade investigation into Chinese-made "legacy" semiconductors, potentially leading to more tariffs on chips used in autos, appliances, and telecom gear. T
In Europe today UK GDP came in slightly weaker than expected :
- Q3 QoQ: 0.0% vs. expected 0.1% (Previous: 0.1%).
- Q3 YoY: 0.9% vs. expected 1.0% (Previous: 1.0%).
ECB (European Central Bank):
- Lagarde emphasizes vigilance and nearing the stage for inflation to meet the 2% target, stating progress depends on wages catching up with prices.
- Makhlouf indicates uncertainty for 2025 and prefers gradual rate adjustments over sharp changes unless justified by evidence.
Canada GDP for October is expected to show a 0.1% gain when it is released at 8:30 AM ET. The IPPI and RMPI will also be released at 8;30 AM with expectation of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
US consumer confidence will be released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 113.3 vs 111.7 last month
Looking at the markets, US stocks are up in premarket trading, The futures are implying:
- Dow is down -73 points after rising +498 points on Friday
- S&P is up 9.65 points after rising 63.77 points of Friday
- Nasdaq is up 104 points after rising 199 points on Friday
In the US debt market yields are higher by 1 to 3 basis points:
- 2 year 4.325%, up 1.3 bps
- 5 year 4.395%, up 1.7 bps
- 10 year 4.548%, up 2.4 bps
- 30 year 4.746%, up 3.1 bps
In the forex, the US dollar is higher across the board. The greenback is highest vs the CHF with a gain of 0.55%, and up the least vs the AUD (+0.19%) and NZD (+0.18%).
Crude oil is down -$0.38 or -0.80% at $69.11. Gold is down about -$8.00 or -0.31% at $2614.
Bitcoin is up $1000 on the day at $96,102, but is down from the Friday close at $97,760. The low for the weekend reached $93,639 (today).
European shares are mixed/little changed:
- German Dax unchanged
- France's CAC +0.22%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.24%
- Spain's Ibex Unchanged
- Italy's FTSE MIB +0.23%
In the Asian Pacific session:
- Japan Nikkei rose 1.19%
- Hang Seng rose 0.82%
- Shanghia composite index fell -0.50%
- Australias S&P/ASX index rose 1.67%
- Chinas CSI 300 rose 0.15%