pelosi 07 March 2022
  • White House says it doesn't support Taiwan independence
  • Pelosi has not confirmed any travel plans to Taiwan
  • We have been clear from the beginning that she will make her own decisions
  • Nothing has changed about our policy on Taiwan
  • She has a right to visit Taiwan as other US lawmakers have
  • Nothing about Pelosi visit would change the status quo

Looking ahead, here are some other interesting comments:

  • China appears to be positioning itself to take further steps in coming days that could include military provocations

The White House had a list of possible provocations and said 'we will not take the bait'.

  • Firing missiles into Strait
  • Operations that "break historic norms, such as large scale entry in Taiwan Air Defense Zone"
  • Crossing Median Line
  • Military exercises
  • Further spurious legal claims" on Strait

So now we have an idea of what the White House thinks will be China's 'response' but at the same time we see the White House distancing itself from Pelosi.

So long as none of those things are open conflict, it's not a concern for markets.

Also... as if the White House doesn't know Pelosi's travel plans.