All the hype coming into this week was about the US CPI report but retail sales is more likely to offer clues about the state of the consumer and the consumer is what will determine what happens next with the economy and the price of goods.
Brett Donnelly today notes that 14 of the last 16 times December retail sales were weak, January was stronger than expected. Add in great January weather and upbeat spending surveys and the odds of a strong report are high.
That said, economists have sniffed some of that out with the consensus at a healthy +1.8% m/m after -1.1% in December. The control group is also seen at +0.8% vs -0.7% prior.
Bank of America has some good credit card data and their economists are at +3.0% on the headline and +2.6%(!) on the control group.