I've had a few rants lately about leaks about the private inventory data that's released late on Tuesdays. Generally they've been selloffs that have reversed when traders covered after the data was finally released, but that's because there have been a series of builds. Today oil was $1.37 higher to $77.05/barrel so the inclination is to expect a smaller build than the +457K expected, or even a surprise draw.
That could certainly happen but what makes me think this is less of a leak-driven move is that the vast majority of today's oil gains came well before North American trade and that's when the private numbers have leaked previously. So it could be driven by other fundamentals, like OXY cutting back some production in Africa, or signs of Russian production troubles.
In any case, despite waves of crude oil builds, it's still in the $70-85 range and at $77, it's right in the middle of it. Chinese inventories are building and some are taking that as a bearish sign but we'll have to wait and see how it shakes out. The trade continues to be to go with a range break when it inevitably comes.
