Dollar Index tends to sag
August was a great month for seasonal trades but there aren't many reliable patterns in September, especially in foreign exchange.
The Dollar Index averages a 0.25% decline in September over the past 10 years and the selling is a bit stronger if you take a longer view. Still, that only makes it the fifth worst month for the dollar.
A better trade might be to look for an opportunity to buy the dollar because there is some seasonal strength in October and November.
The main risk to the dollar at the moment -- especially against the yen -- is the potential for China tariffs. The review period for tariffs on virtually everything that's imported from China is September 6 and one report says Trump wants to announce the tariffs immediately afterwards.
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