A snippet while we await some results out of the US election.

This via an analyst at Citi speaking in a CNBC interview on Tuesday before polls closed.

In brief:

  • starting point is fairly extended valuation ... predicated on very strong earnings growth follow-through into 2025
  • concern is that with that set up, you go into a Trump win and you introduce tariffs into the discussion … [and] 2025 growth expectations become a bit more suspect as we navigate tariff action
  • if Harris is victorious investors should consider buying an anticipated market dip
  • “It really comes down to Trump and tariffs, and Harris and taxes”

Meanwhile, the US dollar has had a small lift:

usdyen us election 1 06 November 2024 2

For the yen, bear in mind that (BOJ + Fed) > (Harris + Trump) ... by a LONG way!