GBP/USD eases to a one-week low of 1.3025

GBP/USD H1 28-01

Buyers have been failing at key tests to win back some upside momentum since the start of the week as they were unable to firmly break the 100-hour MA (red line) twice before failing to breach the 200-hour MA (blue line) earlier today.

That has resulted in a loss of momentum as sellers now push the issue and drive price lower, aiming towards the 1.3000 handle in the European morning.

It is all about the BOE for the pound and since last week's PMI data, the fact that odds of a 25 bps rate cut are more or less a coin flip - now at ~57%, up from ~48% last Friday - doesn't breed confidence for buyers ahead of the decision on Thursday.

As price action starts to creep lower, the next key support level can be seen around the 1.3000 handle with further support then seen closer to 1.2950-60.

Keep an eye on those levels as market participants continue to try and gauge BOE pricing over the next two days. I don't think sellers would push the issue too much considering the risk, so I'd be mindful of chasing a move under 1.3000 ahead of the BOE.