Dollar decline continues. New lows vs. all the major currencies (sans the JPY)

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

Dollar falls as yields rise. Stocks trading at highs

The dollar continues its fall. 

It has made new session lows vs all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY. The USDJPY remains above its low for the day.

The move lower by the dollar is being helped by technicals and by lower estimates for GDP as a result of the retail sales.  So although inflation is higher (and bond yields trade up 6-7 basis points), the forex market and stocks seem to be discounting less Fed in 2018 (back to Goldilocks?).


The EURUSD moved above the Feb 6 high and continues its march to higher levels. The pair remains below the Feb 1 high at 1.25223, but is now above the 61.8% at 1.2401. That is a risk level now.


The GBPUSD just moved back up to test the 1.4004-11 level. Remember that was the swing lows from April and July 2016 (pre-Brexit). That is actually a good level to lean against  now.... If you want to stick a toe in the water, lean against the area.


The USDCAD has broken below the 200 hour MA at 1.25433 and looks toward the 38.2% of the move up from the Jan 31 low at 1.2516.  The fall has also cracked below the 1.24558


The NZDUSD has been all over the place. The pair moved higher on higher inflation expectations. It tumbled on the CPI, and shot back higher. In the process, the price moved outside the channel trend lines on the top and bottom and top again. That topside trend line at 0.7341, and the high from Feb 6 at 0.7350 is now risk for the longs.


The USDJPY is not making new lows (for the USD).  It remains above the low for the day at 106.715, but is below the 2017 low at 107.315.  It may not be making dollar lows like the other pairs, but it still needs a move back above the 2017 low to give buyers more confidence.  PS the lower trend line stalled the fall at the Asian low. If the price does move lower, that will be eyed as a support target.


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