Technical levels in play and why through the Australia employment report

Eamonn outlined the expectations for the Australian unemployment report out at 0130 GMT today. You can read all about it HERE.

What are the charts saying and what levels are of importance through the number?

Looking at the daily chart first, the end of 2017 closed right around the 0.78000 area.

  • The 100 hour MA is currently at 0.77915
  • The high yesterday moved up to 0.7797 and moved back down.
  • The high last week reached 0.7809.
  • The 200 day MA comes in at 0.78133.
  • There is a topside trend line also at 0.7813 area.

Technically, that says to me, step above the 0.77915 to 0.78133 levels and the pair is breaking out. The price is currently trading at 0.77813, just below the lowest of those steps higher. A move above, and the 38.2.% of the 2018 range at 0.78305 and the 50% at 0.78886 will be targets.

On the downside, the hourly chart has the targets that help to turn the bias more bearish.

Looking at the hourly chart,

  • The 100 hour MA comes in at 0.77718 level. I can't say the price action has respected that MA line, but in trading yesterday, the price in the Asian session used the level as a ceiling area. Later in the NY session after breaking back higher, the swing low stalled at that MA line (blue line at 0.77718). So most recent price action respected the level
  • The 200 hour MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour come in at 0.7747-49. The low in trading yesterday stalled near those MAs (they were a little lower). The 38.2% is at 0.7749 too. The combination of technical levels makes those levels important.
  • The 50% of the move up from the April low comes in at 0.77306.
  • The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at 0.77165

Those are the steps lower on a weaker number.

We know the expectations and the stories from Eamonn's post. Then we will get the number and the reaction. If it comes in as expected, the price waffles back and forth. Maybe there is a push, one way or the other just because and maybe there is a dip to be bought (at 0.7747) or a rally to sell (at 0.78133)

If there is a surprise - bullish or bearish - the technicals will also step traders through the up or down trend.

It is important to be prepared for all the cases so you can react. Hopefully both Eamonn's and my posts clear the haze and make your trading easier.