EUR/USD touches a high of 1.1692 on the day
At the end of the day, it's all about finding a firm break above the 100-day MA (red line) @ 1.1664 for buyers. But more so, hold a break above that and 1.1700 will be key for the next leg higher.
There is further daily resistance from the swing region around 1.1728 to 1.1750 but for now, let's not get carried away. Price continues to trade around the 100-day MA and that remains a key battleground for buyers and sellers. Buyers are still struggling to find a firm break above it (a close above 1.1700 is much needed in my view) while sellers are still not giving up on the level just yet.
Much like the dollar index, this is more or less a mirror image of trading sentiment in the greenback at the moment. Price continues to hold above the 100-hour MA while also being capped by the 100-day MA:
That means near-term bias remains more bullish but the 100-day MA is what is limiting gains for the pair at the moment as it continues to attract sellers to keep price close to that level. If buyers can sustain a break above 1.1700, it makes for good conviction to build for a further move higher. Otherwise, keep an eye on near-term momentum.
If price starts falling back below the 100-hour MA (red line) and move towards the 200-hour MA (blue line), then price momentum will start siding with sellers once again.
Support
- 1.1672 (100-hour MA)
- 1.1650 (swing region)
- 1.1643 (200-hour MA)
- 1.1625 (swing region)
- 1.1600 (bids, swing region)
Resistance
- 1.1700 (offers, swing region)
- 1.1721 (14 September high)
- 1.1728-50 (swing region)
- 1.1791 (July high)
- 1.1800-10 (offers, swing region)
More to come...