Back to back narrow range weeks (131 pips and 135 pips so far). Prepping for a break ahead....
The EURUSD this week is trading in a 135 pip trading range. Last week the range was 131 pips and that was the lowest of the year. The market continues to struggle in a non-trending range.
This week, the price moved above last weeks high (1.2344) and the 50% midpoint of the 3 month trading range (Red box) at 1.2354. That break failed and today we traded below the 50% all day (the high reached 1.2345 - near that high from last week). The buyers had their shot this week. They failed.
That is counter to last week, when the price moved below the March swing lows (see red circles 1 and 2) at 1.22387. The sellers had their shot last week. They failed.
We currently trade between those two extremes and my gut says the next break will define the next trend move for the pair.
PS the low this week was at 1.22597. The high reached 1.23952. Today, moves outside those ranges obviously extends the narrow trading range. It is still possible.
- A move below the 38.2% at 1.23068 and the 1.2300 level would likely increase the bearish bias today.
- A move above the 50% at 1.23542 would increase the bullish bias today.
Drilling to the hourly today, the price trades between the 100 hour MA below and the 200 hour MA above.
- The 100 hour MA is at 1.2305. The 50% of the move up from April 6 is at 1.23046. The low yesterday came in at 1.2299. That increases that areas importance on the downside.
- The 200 hour MA comes in at 1.23405. The high today did move above that MA line but it failed (it failed yesterday too).
The low in the London morning dipped to 1.23067, just above the key support area.
For trading, trade the ranges, but be on the lookout for breaks too. The pair is coiling for a break and run. It may not be today but it is on the horizon.
PS Don't rule out a Friday run/break....
