AUDUSD is a seasonal winner in Feb. What would make it look bullish technically?

Now that we are in February, it was time for Adam to post is seasonal picks for the month of February. Leading the table is the AUDUSD which has been up in 12 of 16 years. The pair is off to a slow start - falling from the end of month level at 0.7080 to a low today of 0.70387. However, the pair has moved off the lows and just tested a key resistance level.

That key level comes in against the 50% retracement and the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) at the 0.70768 and 0.7073 prices respectively. The high corrective price just printed 0.7073. The first look failed to break....

So what would make the AUDUSD look more bullish technically in February? How about getting and staying above that level. Admittedly, the first look has seen sellers enter against the resistance area - they must not have read Adam's post - but the month is a long time. There is time.

In the short term though, if you like the upside, keep an eye on the 0.7045/47 area. The Jan 13 high was at 0.7047 and the Jan 22 high was 0.7045. Yesterday the price fell below that level but stalled at the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 0.7041. So that was a nice rebound. Today, the pair fell below the level on two separate occasions - reaching lows at 0.7039. I can't really say the price came smashing through that support with momentum.

Another positive bullish sign in a down day is the pair is holding in so far in the NA session despite the stock market tumble. The Nasdaq is down 2% now and the S&P is down 1.84%. Oil is down 5%. The usual flows out of the risk are not happening (although the upside is still limited). So maybe there are some closet buyers in the pair who want to see it do better.

Keep an eye on support. If it does hold, there may be a break above the aforementioned resistance at some point (well there would be as the pair is not going to sit in a 30 pip range), and that would be a step in the bullish direction for the pair in the early days of what is seasonally a good month for the AUDUSD.

PS Later today the Australian building approvals and trade balance (est. -2.500B vs 02.906B last) will be released. Below are the estimates.