Forex technical analysis: For the AUDUSD, the RBA decision is the main event.

From the leaks, a cut is coming.

The AUDUSD traded at new day high, but it is the RBA which will be the main event for this currency over the next 24 hours. That decision will be tomorrow at 12:30 AM ET. 2:30 PM local time in Australia.

Although the pair traded at new highs for the day in the NY session, the range is an uninspiring 49 pips today. The average is more like 107 pips. This is not that surprising given the decision looming (and UK holiday).

The odds of a cut have increased as press leaks are more believable. The leaks are saying 0.25% is a done deal. The market has the odds up to 80% for 25 basis points. Ryan chimed in with a vote for maybe even a 50 bp move. That would be something.

Like the GBPUSD, the AUDUSD hanging near the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above). That level comes in at 78.69. In addition to that level, there is a bunch of highs that peaked at the 0.7841-57 (see yellow area in the chart above). The new price high today just reached 0.78509 - in between the two levels.

Should by some freak of nature the press leaks are wrong (or the USD has a tumble), the high price from February reached 0.79126, while the high price in March peaked at 0.79378. I would expect the market to rocket through these levels on a no change, and head back toward the 0.8058 level (38.2% retracement of the move down from October). Once again, however, given the recent history of leaks, this would be unlikely. Nevertheless, it is best to be prepared, than not (PS there should be a strong hint in the last minute of trading into the release as that too has become the pattern of late on RBA decisions).

On the downside, the 0.7719-40 also had a bunch of activity over the last few months of non-trend trading (see green circles). So I will be looking for that area to be one to get and stay below if there is to be a break lower (use this as a risk defining level on a break). On a cut, there should be a run toward the 0.7532 low - especially with some time until the all important US employment report on Friday. However, if it is so certain, how come the price is not lower? The sentiment switched lower after peaking last week, but perhaps the sharp run up last week is making traders just a little more cautious before the decision.